---
title: "Check Point’s product sales fell 19%, subscriptions rose 11%: its CEO calls Q3 the trough"
summary: "Check Point’s results for the quarter to 30 September, read against seven quarters of its filings, four earnings calls, and Fortinet’s and Palo Alto Networks’ latest quarters."
url: https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/check-point-revenue-trough-subscriptions-grow
format: Analysis
desk: "Markets & the AI economy"
region: Global
published: 2026-11-03
facts_checked: 2026-11-03
author: TechBag (The TechBag Journal)
tags: ["Check Point","earnings","firewall","appliance refresh","security subscriptions","guidance","Fortinet","Palo Alto Networks","memory costs","price increase","renewal"]
cover: https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/covers/check-point-revenue-trough-subscriptions-grow.png
---

# Check Point’s product sales fell 19%, subscriptions rose 11%: its CEO calls Q3 the trough

*Check Point’s results for the quarter to 30 September, read against seven quarters of its filings, four earnings calls, and Fortinet’s and Palo Alto Networks’ latest quarters.*

Analysis · Markets & the AI economy · By TechBag · Published 2026-11-03 · Facts checked 2026-11-03 · Canonical: https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/check-point-revenue-trough-subscriptions-grow

The short version

1. Check Point’s revenue fell 1% to US$670m in the quarter to 30 September: product and licence revenue fell 19% to US$105.5m while security subscriptions grew 11% to US$338.6m. Its chief executive, Nadav Zafrir: “We believe revenues reached a trough in the third quarter.”[1][2]
2. The trough was forecast in July. What changed on 2 November is the pace: the recovery is “taking longer than anticipated”, large firewall refresh deals moved to 2027, and the 2026 revenue range was cut for the second time, to US$2.732–2.782bn from US$2.83–2.95bn in February.[1][9][12]
3. Fortinet’s product revenue grew 37% in the same quarter, and Palo Alto Networks’ 29% in its latest, acquisitions included. All three cite rising hardware costs and have raised hardware prices; Check Point’s firewall prices rose 12–20% from 4 October. At a renewal, the price list your quote is on matters more than the trough.[13][16][9]

Check Point Software, the Israeli firewall maker listed on Nasdaq, sells appliances, support and subscriptions together, and a renewal with it is a decision about all three at once. When its chief executive says revenue has bottomed, a buyer wants to know three things: what fell and what grew, whether management’s earlier forecasts held, and whether this is Check Point’s story or the market’s. This piece reads seven quarters of Check Point’s filings and four of its calls in management’s own words, sets them beside Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks, and ends with what the quarter changes at a firewall renewal.

## Product revenue fell 19% while subscriptions grew 11%

Total revenue was US$669.8m in the September quarter, against US$677.5m a year earlier. Products and licences, the line that carries firewall appliances, fell to US$105.5m from US$130.4m. Security subscriptions rose to US$338.6m from US$305.4m, and software updates, maintenance and services fell to US$225.7m from US$241.7m.[2] GAAP earnings per share fell 45% to US$1.82, because the year-earlier quarter carried a one-time tax benefit; excluding it, Check Point says earnings rose 1%.[1][6]

**Figure: Check Point's product revenue has fallen year on year for three quarters running, by 19% in the latest**

*Products and licences revenue, US$m, and change on the same quarter a year earlier, %, Q1 2025 to Q3 2026*

|  | Products and licences (US$m) | Change on a year earlier (%) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Q1 25 | 114.1 | 13.8 |
| Q2 25 | 131.9 | 11.7 |
| Q3 25 | 130.4 | 9.7 |
| Q4 25 | 171.8 | 0.7 |
| Q1 26 | 110.8 | -2.9 |
| Q2 26 | 113.4 | -14 |
| Q3 26 | 105.5 | -19.1 |

Source: Check Point quarterly results (Form 6-K), Q1 2025 to Q3 2026; growth rates are TechBag arithmetic · as of 2 November 2026 · The fourth quarter is seasonally the largest for products

The chief financial officer, Roei Golan, put the fall in total revenue “mainly due to a lower firewall appliances refresh activity as expected in this quarter”: customers replacing old appliances less often, or later. Some large refresh projects with existing customers were moved to next year; one customer “had a very significant refresh project that was supposed to be this year, and was decided to move it to next year.”[9] In July the company had guided third-quarter revenue of US$665–685m; US$669.8m sits in the lower half of that range, while subscriptions, at US$338.6m, landed near the middle of their US$332–343m range.[10][2]

## Subscriptions passed half of revenue; maintenance fell with the appliances

The mix moved faster than the total. Security subscriptions were 50.6% of revenue in the September quarter, the first time above half in the seven quarters we charted, up from 45.1% a year earlier. Products and licences fell to 15.8% of revenue from 19.2%.[2][6] Subscription growth has held between 9.6% and 11.7% in every one of those quarters; the product line went from 13.8% growth to a 19.1% fall.[8][3]

**Figure: Half of Check Point's revenue now comes from security subscriptions, up from 45% a year earlier**

*Security subscriptions as a share of total revenue, quarters to 30 September 2025 and 2026*

45.1%

Quarter to September 2025

US$305.4m of US$677.5m

50.6%

Quarter to September 2026

US$338.6m of US$669.8m

Source: Check Point quarterly results (Form 6-K); shares computed by TechBag · as of 2 November 2026

Subscriptions are where management points for growth. Golan said email security, AI security and exposure management (CTEM) “continue to demonstrate strong momentum”, together almost 30% of subscription recurring revenue; Zafrir said email security alone had crossed US$200m in annual recurring revenue. Golan expects annual subscription revenue “to cross the $1.5 billion” in 2027.[9] Golan tied the maintenance line to the appliances: he said half of its decline on the quarter came from maintenance, the other half from professional services, and linked it to the lower refresh activity.[9]

TechBag countTechBag count

Shares are each line ÷ total revenue, from the 6-K income statements: US$338.6m ÷ US$669.8m = 50.6%; US$305.4m ÷ US$677.5m = 45.1%. Growth rates are on unrounded US$ millions, so they can differ by a tenth of a point from Check Point’s rounded figures. Over nine months, revenue is up 1.6% and products and licences down 12.4%.

## From “a blip” to “longer than anticipated”: what management said each quarter

A year ago the tone was different: in July 2025 Zafrir said the third quarter was “shaping up well with strong July indicators.”[7] In February Check Point guided 2026 revenue of US$2.83–2.95bn, 4–8% growth, with product revenue “around flat to low single digits”, and Zafrir described a new sales model, sellers covering each of its product pillars, as “a major change in the way we’re going to market, as of literally now.”[12] In April product revenue was “impacted by go-to-market changes implemented at the beginning of the quarter,” the release said; on the call Zafrir called it “a sort of a blip” and the revenue range was cut to US$2.77–2.85bn.[4][11] A new chief revenue officer, Sherif Seddik, replaced Itai Greenberg from 1 May.[4]

In July, with product revenue down 14%, Zafrir said: “We expect Q3 to mark the trough, followed by a stronger Q4,” and Golan said large appliance deals had been pushed from the third quarter to the fourth and that the company expected “to be back to growth in Q4 in the product revenues.” The full-year range was kept.[10] On 2 November the release repeated the trough and added: “The recovery is taking longer than anticipated, but we remain confident in our vision.”[1]

**Figure: Check Point called the trough in July; in November it cut its range again and said recovery would be slower**

*Management's statements on results days, with Check Point's closing share move that day, July 2025 to November 2026*

| Date | Event | Detail |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 30 Jul 2025 | “Strong July indicators” | Q2 2025 revenue +6%; the CEO says the third quarter is shaping up well |
| 12 Feb 2026 | Guide: US$2.83–2.95bn | 2026 revenue +4–8%; new sales model starts; shares −6.8% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | “A sort of a blip” | Products hit by the sales changes; range cut to US$2.77–2.85bn; shares −19.6% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | “Q3 to mark the trough” | Products −14%; appliance deals pushed from Q3 to Q4; range kept; shares −8.2% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | Firewall prices +12–20% | Rise on firewall products and their support and subscriptions takes effect |
| 2 Nov 2026 | “Longer than anticipated” | Products −19%; refresh deals to 2027; range cut to US$2.732–2.782bn; shares −7.0% |

Source: Check Point results releases (6-K) and call transcripts; Nasdaq closing prices · as of 2 November 2026 · Share moves are close to close; we do not attribute them to any one statement

On the call Zafrir drew the line himself: “In July, we said we expected the third quarter to mark the trough in product revenue, and we believe it did,” and “I want to be clear that the pace of recovery is more gradual than we previously anticipated.” Golan: “To your question on the recovery, that will take longer than what we anticipated.”[9] The first explicit “longer than anticipated” is November’s; April had already spoken of “lower than expected product revenues” from fewer appliance refresh projects.[11]

> Still we do see qualified funnel stronger than what we had last year, but the magnitude is slightly lower.Roei Golan, Check Point CFO, on the Q4 funnel, 2 November 2026

TechBag countTechBag count: what the new ranges imply

The 2026 revenue midpoint has gone from US$2.89bn in February to US$2.81bn in April and July and US$2.757bn now: growth of 1.2% on 2025’s US$2,725.4m, against 6.0% in February. The fourth-quarter range, US$720–770m, has a midpoint of US$745m, level with the US$744.9m of a year earlier. Take the subscription midpoint (US$356.5m) away and products plus maintenance come to about US$388.5m, 7.5% below the US$419.8m of the fourth quarter of 2025. Check Point gave no product guidance; this split is ours.[9][5]

The analysts on the call pressed on the same gap. Wolfe Research’s Joshua Tilton asked what had changed if the quarter was in line with expectations, and Baird’s Shrenik Kothari whether the refresh delays were structural. Zafrir’s answer to the first included: “We actually see demand rising.”[9] Check Point’s shares closed 7.0% lower on 2 November, at US$141.50; the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%.[20]

## Same cost pressure, opposite product lines: Check Point, Fortinet, Palo Alto

The refresh Check Point says was deferred is visible at two listed rivals. Fortinet’s product revenue grew 36.8% to US$765.0m in the same September quarter, after 18.0% a year earlier, while its service revenue grew 12.7%, the same rate as a year before.[13][14] Its CFO, Christiane Ohlgart, said product revenue “benefited from customers shifting towards higher performing models, lifting ASPs”. Asked by Citi about “asset sweating”, customers keeping appliances longer, Fortinet’s chief executive, Ken Xie, said the stretching came from “some low-end or certain vertical, like retail” and “we don’t feel this stretching will be a trend going forward.”[15]

**Figure: Fortinet's and Palo Alto's product revenue grew faster than a year earlier; Check Point's swung to a 19% fall**

*Revenue growth on the same quarter a year earlier, %, in each company's latest reported quarter and the one a year before*

|  | A year earlier | Latest quarter | Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Check Point, products | 9.7 | -19.1 | -28.8 pts |
| Fortinet, product | 18 | 36.8 | 18.8 pts |
| Palo Alto, product* | 19.4 | 28.6 | 9.2 pts |
| Check Point, subscriptions | 10.3 | 10.9 | 0.6 pts |
| Fortinet, service | 12.7 | 12.7 | 0 pts |
| Palo Alto, subs & support* | 14.8 | 36.2 | 21.4 pts |

Source: Fortinet Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 results; Palo Alto Networks fiscal Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 results; Check Point Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 results · as of 2 November 2026 · Check Point and Fortinet: quarter to 30 September. Palo Alto (*): quarter to 31 July, and includes CyberArk and Chronosphere, bought in early 2026

Palo Alto Networks’ product revenue grew to US$738m in the quarter to 31 July from US$573.9m, and subscription and support to US$2,672m from US$1,962.4m.[16][17] Those figures include CyberArk, bought on 11 February 2026, whose on-premise identity licences now sit in product revenue; the two acquisitions of the year added US$930m of revenue in the fiscal year. Its 10-K puts the year’s product growth down to software licences “including from our CyberArk acquisition” and “increased demand for our new generation of hardware products.”[18] On the call its CFO, Dipak Golechha, said Network & AI Security revenue grew 17% in the fiscal year to US$8.35bn.[19]

One thing is common to all three: component costs, memory above all. Check Point said higher memory costs cut its gross margin, by about a point this year; Palo Alto expects “rising commodity costs to persist in our hardware business, particularly as it relates to memory and storage,” and is taking “selective pricing actions” on hardware; at Fortinet, Ohlgart said “the costs are creeping up and then impacting the product gross margin,” and Anthony Luskey, closing the call, said its price increase had added about 10 percentage points to billings growth.[9][19][15] Why memory costs rose is in [our piece on PC shipments and DRAM prices](https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/pc-shipments-fall-memory-prices-ai-data-centres). Check Point is also not alone with the word: Fortinet’s CFO said on 28 October that “the first quarter of 2026 marked a trough for our services revenue growth rate.”[15] Fortinet’s trough is in services, Check Point’s in products.

ReportedWhat Check Point said about its rivals' prices

Golan said of Fortinet and Palo Alto: “I think they both announced in the same timing that we announced the price increase.”[9] We did not find either company’s price notice, so this is Check Point’s statement, not a fact we have checked. On 2 November, the day of Check Point’s results, Fortinet closed 7.3% lower and Palo Alto 3.9% lower; neither reported that day, and we found no report giving a reason.[20]

## What a trough quarter changes at a firewall renewal

A falling product line does not touch the contract you hold. Check Point generated US$258m of adjusted free cash flow in the quarter, bought back about US$325m of shares, and held US$4.12bn of cash and deposits, up mainly because of a US$2bn convertible note; remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognised, were US$2.5bn, up 5%.[1] What the quarter does change is the vendor’s position at the table. Golan said the price rise of 12–20% on “all our firewall products, including support, the attached support and subscription” is effective from 4 October, would add up to three points to revenue growth if fully captured, and that “historically, we managed to benefit slightly less than half of it.”[9] Golan said the company “will be able to start with much higher sales capacity” in 2027 as new sellers join, and he called the fourth quarter “a more back-end loaded quarter.”[9]

**Figure: Five checks settle a Check Point renewal in a trough quarter, before the vendor's quarter-end**

*TechBag's renewal checklist, drawn from Check Point's 2 November call, its price rise of 4 October and its support policy*

Step 1 of 5

1. Which price list is the quote on?

The 12–20% rise took effect on 4 October. A quote dated earlier, or a renewal priced from last year’s order, may be on the old list: ask for the list date in writing.

Source: Check Point Q3 2026 call; Check Point support life cycle policy; TechBag analysis · as of 3 November 2026

Our viewOur view

For a buyer, the trough is a negotiating fact, not a risk to the vendor. Check Point is raising list prices while its product line shrinks and its sellers are still being hired; that is the moment to ask for a discount against the new list, and for the price of years two and three in writing. The evidence against: management says demand is rising and its qualified funnel is “stronger than what we had last year”, so a buyer who waits for a bigger discount may meet a full order book instead.

If you are renewing a firewall in India

Check Point does not report Indian revenue. Its 2025 annual report lists a subsidiary, Check Point Software Technologies India Private Limited, and a technical assistance centre in India; it sells mainly through distributors and resellers, and its Asia Pacific revenue was US$334.5m in 2025, 12.3% of the total.[21] Check Point did not say on the call whether the October rise applies equally in every country, so ask the partner which list the quote uses.

TechBag countTechBag count: the rise in rupees

For every ₹10,00,000 of firewall support and subscription at the old list, a 12% rise adds ₹1,20,000 and a 20% rise ₹2,00,000, before tax. With GST at 18%, the invoice goes from ₹11,80,000 to between ₹13,21,600 and ₹14,16,000. These are per ₹10 lakh of list price, not Check Point prices.[24]

The regulation that bites at renewal is about logs, not price. CERT-In’s Directions of 28 April 2022 require organisations to keep logs of their ICT systems for a rolling 180 days within India and to report listed incidents within six hours.[23] A firewall’s log and management subscription is part of how that is met, so size its retention to 180 days when you price the renewal. The [firewall guide](https://www.thetechbag.com/browse/network-security-sase/firewall-network-security) compares Check Point, Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks.

How we did this

Figures as of 3 November 2026, 7pm IST

Check Point’s revenue lines are from its quarterly releases as filed with the SEC on Form 6-K, Q1 2025 to Q3 2026, each quarter from its own release; the third line is named “software updates and maintenance” in some releases and “software updates, maintenance and services” in others. Growth rates, shares and guidance midpoints are our arithmetic. Management’s words come from the releases and from published machine transcripts of the calls; we quote short sentences only and leave out passages the transcripts garble, including the CFO’s description of third-quarter revenue as “at the midpoint”, which does not match the range he gave in July. Fortinet and Palo Alto figures are from their own releases, Palo Alto’s 10-K and their calls; Palo Alto’s include acquisitions and are not like for like. Share moves are Nasdaq closing prices against the previous close. Analysts appear only as the questions they asked on the call.

Spotted an error? Write to us; corrections are published at the foot of the piece.

Sources

1. [Check Point Software, Check Point Software Reports 2026 Third Quarter Financial Results](https://www.checkpoint.com/press-releases/check-point-software-reports-2026-third-quarter-financial-results/) — 2 November 2026
2. [Check Point Software, Form 6-K: third-quarter 2026 results and income statement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001015922/000117891326004953/zk2636310.htm) — 2 November 2026
3. [Check Point Software, Form 6-K: second-quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015922/000117891326003696/zk2635799.htm) — 30 July 2026
4. [Check Point Software, Form 6-K: first-quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015922/000117891326002310/a2635159.htm) — 30 April 2026
5. [Check Point Software, Form 6-K: fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015922/000117891326000437/zk2634351.htm) — 12 February 2026
6. [Check Point Software, Form 6-K: third-quarter 2025 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015922/000117891325003565/2533887.htm) — 28 October 2025
7. [Check Point Software, Form 6-K: second-quarter 2025 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015922/000117891325002530/zk2533503.htm) — 30 July 2025
8. [Check Point Software, Form 6-K: first-quarter 2025 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015922/000117891325001386/zk2533044.htm) — 23 April 2025
9. [Stock Analysis, Check Point Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Nadav Zafrir, Roei Golan)](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/chkp/transcripts/719828-q3-2026/) — 2 November 2026
10. [Webull, Check Point (CHKP) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript](https://www.webull.com/news/15364638754350080) — 30 July 2026
11. [Stock Analysis, Check Point Q1 2026 earnings call transcript](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/chkp/transcripts/555834-q1-2026/) — 30 April 2026
12. [Stock Analysis, Check Point Q4 2025 earnings call transcript](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/chkp/transcripts/403995-q4-2025/) — 12 February 2026
13. [Fortinet, third-quarter 2026 results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262039/000126203926000024/ftntq3-2026ex991.htm) — 28 October 2026
14. [Fortinet, third-quarter 2025 results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262039/000126203925000036/ftntq3-2025ex991.htm) — 5 November 2025
15. [Stock Analysis, Fortinet Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Ken Xie, Christiane Ohlgart, Anthony Luskey)](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/transcripts/718650-q3-2026/) — 28 October 2026
16. [Palo Alto Networks, fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000019/ex991q426earningsrelease.htm) — 1 September 2026
17. [Palo Alto Networks, fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results (8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756725000024/ex991q425earningsrelease.htm) — 18 August 2025
18. [Palo Alto Networks, annual report on Form 10-K, fiscal year to 31 July 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/panw-20260731.htm) — 10 September 2026
19. [Stock Analysis, Palo Alto Networks fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call transcript (Nikesh Arora, Dipak Golechha)](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/panw/transcripts/684482-q4-2026/) — 1 September 2026
20. [Nasdaq, historical prices for CHKP, FTNT, PANW and the Nasdaq Composite](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/chkp/historical) — sessions of 30 July 2025 to 2 November 2026
21. [Check Point Software, annual report on Form 20-F for 2025 (subsidiaries, support centres, revenue by region)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015922/000117891326001932/zk2634942.htm) — 31 March 2026
22. [Check Point Software, Support Life Cycle Policy (appliance end-of-sale and end-of-support table)](https://www.checkpoint.com/support-services/support-life-cycle-policy/) — undated; current version
23. [CERT-In, Directions under section 70B(6) of the IT Act (six-hour reporting, 180-day logs in India)](https://www.cert-in.org.in/PDF/CERT-In_Directions_70B_28.04.2022.pdf) — 28 April 2022
24. [India Briefing, Digital services in India: OIDAR, GST applicability and reverse charge (18% GST)](https://www.india-briefing.com/news/tax-digital-services-oidar-in-india-gst-applicability-and-compliance-22465.html) — updated 29 September 2023

Related on TechBag: the [Check Point hub](https://www.thetechbag.com/checkpoint), the [Fortinet hub](https://www.thetechbag.com/fortinet), and [our piece on Fortinet’s results week](https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/revenue-up-shares-down-q3-results).

**Disclosure.** TechBag is a software reseller: it earns a margin when a reader buys through it, including from vendors named here. The analysis is TechBag’s own; no vendor paid for or saw this piece before publication. Facts are labelled reported, TechBag count or our view.

Go deeper on TechBag

- [The Check Point hub](https://www.thetechbag.com/checkpoint) — Quantum firewalls, Harmony and CloudGuard, with dated claims
- [Firewall and network security guide](https://www.thetechbag.com/browse/network-security-sase/firewall-network-security) — Check Point, Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks compared for a renewal
- [Revenue up about 20%, shares down 20–29%](https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/revenue-up-shares-down-q3-results) — Fortinet’s results week, when its product growth slowed to 37%