China barred SoftBank’s US$5.375bn ABB Robotics deal only in China, not worldwide

01Which office acted, and what it can decide

The office is not a competition authority. It runs China’s national-security review of foreign investment under the Measures for the Security Review of Foreign Investment, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Commerce on 19 December 2020 and in force since 18 January 2021. The Measures cover investment by foreign investors inside China, including buying the shares or assets of a Chinese company; the office sits in the NDRC.⁴

A review has three possible outcomes: clearance, a prohibition, or clearance with conditions the investor accepts in writing. A general review takes 30 working days and a special review 60, which can be extended. Under a prohibition the parties “may not implement the investment”, and anything already done must be unwound (Articles 9 and 12, our translation).⁴ Neither SoftBank’s nor ABB’s statement gives a reason for the decision.¹³

02“Blocked” is not what the companies said

Several reports, The Robot Report’s among them, were headlined as a block on the whole deal.⁹ As both companies describe it, the notice covers the business in China, and the Measures apply to investment made inside China (Article 2).⁴ What is not known is what the deal becomes: whether it closes without the China business, on what price, or on changed terms. The Measures let an investor change its plan while a review is under way (Article 11),⁴ but neither company has said what it will do now. SoftBank says it will announce “promptly” any decision it must disclose.¹

03What SoftBank agreed to buy

SoftBank and ABB signed on 8 October 2025: SoftBank would buy a new holding company in Zürich holding ABB’s robotics business, which develops, makes and sells industrial robots, for US$5.375bn (about ¥818.7bn), subject to approvals “including in the European Union, China, and the United States”. Masayoshi Son called it SoftBank’s step into “Physical AI”.⁵ ABB chose the sale over its planned spin-off. The division had about 7,000 people and 2024 revenue of US$2.3bn, about 7% of ABB’s, at a 12.1% operational EBITA margin; ABB expected about US$5.3bn of net cash and a US$2.4bn pre-tax gain on closing.⁶ Its 2025 revenue was US$2,331m.⁷

On 20 October, two weeks before the notice, ABB still expected the sale to close in the fourth quarter of 2026.⁸ Neither company gives the size of the China business in the documents we read. What to watch: whether SoftBank and ABB announce changed terms, a carve-out of the China business, or a new date.